Time flies very quickly! In November 2022, when the deputies of the current 14th Saeima gathered for their first meeting, then-president Egils Levits, welcoming the newly minted servants of the people, noted that the composition of the parliament had changed by almost half.
How many will we not count?
"And it is quite possible that in another 4 years, after the next elections, we will lose every second member from this composition," the head of state warned instead of congratulating on the election. Yes, of course, soon Levits himself became a "former president," but this does not negate the validity of his prediction — the composition of the next Saeima could change by 50%! In any case, such a trend is "hinted at" by the results of the latest public opinion poll conducted by SKDS sociologists.
The fresh rating of political forces has caused two out of three ruling parties to shudder as they rapidly lose popularity. The prime ministerial force is experiencing a dizzying decline — only 11% of respondents plan to vote for "New Unity." And the "Green Farmers" are at the bottom of the list of parties that have a chance to overcome the five percent barrier — only 7.4% of voters would support them if the elections were held today.
As at the end of last year, the most popular party is "Latvia First" — Schlesers and Co. are supported by 14.6% of voters. In second place is the "Progressives" party with 12.6% support.
The National Alliance closes the top three, with 11.8% of respondents ready to vote for them.
The prime ministerial force is experiencing a rapid decline in popularity — only 11% of respondents plan to vote for "New Unity."
The United List can count on the support of 10.6% of voters. The same number of citizens of the Republic of Latvia with voting rights support "Sovereign Power."
"Dividing" mandates in the new Saeima
Expert and member of the Central Election Commission Ritvars Eglajs from the National Alliance "translated" the percentage ratings into possible numbers of parliamentary mandates in the new Saeima. Here’s what resulted:
"Latvia First" could receive 19 mandates;
"Progressives" – 16;
National Alliance – 15;
"New Unity" – 14;
Sovereign Power – 13-14;
United List – 13-14;
Union of Greens and Farmers — 9.
Based on these calculations, "New Unity" could lose as many as 12 mandates compared to the current Saeima! The "Green Farmers" will be short of 7 parliamentary mandates.
One can imagine what fierce intra-party battles will soon unfold in "New Unity," as alongside the current parliament deputies from this party, Prime Minister Evika Silina, ministers from this political force, and parliamentary secretaries of ministries from "New Unity" will be vying for seats in the coveted 15th Saeima, and surely — some deputies from the Riga City Council and other municipalities...
It is clear that many servants of the people will have to register with the employment service as early as November. Especially if "New Unity" finds itself out of the new government.
The situation is heating up
It is clear that such ratings only exacerbate the already tense atmosphere within the ruling coalition. Of course, there are still almost six months until the elections, and there seems to be enough time for "political salvation"...
But, unfortunately for the ruling parties, the situation in the country and in the world clearly does not favor the adoption of any positive (popular) decisions. And then there are the "chronic" problems of the government in the form of the Rail Baltica project, airBaltica... The government has no good scenarios for the development of events. And for the opposition, forgive the cynicism, the worse — the better.
We should not discount the new political force called "We Change the Rules." Although this party is currently supported by only 2.1% of voters, it is clear that as the economic situation worsens, the protest electorate will grow, and it will surely be captured by this political force.
It should be noted that according to the latest poll, as many as 26% of voters have not yet decided who they will vote for! Of course, those political forces that are currently "not reaching" the coveted 5% can also overcome the five percent barrier — both "Stability!" and the aforementioned party of Hermanis... It will not be boring!
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