"We must be prepared for any scenario": The Latvian Institute of International Affairs predicts what awaits us this year

The world has entered a new phase of instability that will also affect 2026, stated Una Aleksandra Berziņa-Cherenkova, Deputy Director of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, in the TV3 program "900 Seconds."

She acknowledged that the past year has been difficult and changeable. "A new world disorder — this is how the past year can be characterized," said Berziņa-Cherenkova, adding that events in global politics change almost every hour.

At the same time, Latvia has transformed from a consumer of security into an active participant in shaping global security, participating in the work of the UN Security Council and supporting international partners.

The expert noted that despite the difficult situation, Europe is becoming increasingly united. "There has been a shift in thinking — Europe is becoming stronger," she emphasized. Nevertheless, the main challenge remains Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine.

Berziņa-Cherenkova pointed out that Latvia's foreign relations are also changing — both new partners and new challenges are emerging. For small countries, it is becoming increasingly important to preserve their values in the context of the weakening influence of international institutions.

Speaking about transatlantic relations, she acknowledged that statements from US President Donald Trump are often contradictory and can create uncertainty. "They sometimes have an impact and destabilize," said the expert, but emphasized that NATO and cooperation with the US still exist.

"The transatlantic connection still remains, NATO has not ceased to exist," she noted.

At the same time, the role of the European Union as a unified political and defense force is becoming increasingly significant for Latvia.

Looking ahead to 2026, Berziņa-Cherenkova suggested that Latvia will need to actively participate in discussions on European security, the protection of democracy, and the promotion of economic interests.

"Latvia must be ready to work in any scenario," she emphasized.

At the same time, the redistribution of global powers will continue, especially in the rivalry between the US and China. The expert indicated that in conditions of instability, Latvia will need to find a balance between security, democratic values, and increasing prosperity, especially in light of the upcoming election period.