The Fate of the Siliņa Government Hangs by a Thread – The Question is When It Will Snap 0 15

And if the portal bb.lv would have recently bet on the second option, today, looking at the hysteria and drama surrounding the consideration of the bill to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention, the first option can no longer be ruled out.

The Mensheviks Are Not Here

Here, one can agree with political scientist Lelda Metla-Rozentāle, who yesterday on live Latvian TV called the situation with the Siliņa government critical.

The representatives of the ruling coalition themselves, more precisely, the politicians of the "Progressives" party, also speak of the inevitability of a government crisis. The leader of the parliamentary faction "Progressives" Andris Šuvajevs stated in an interview with Latvian TV that the government is effectively functioning in a minority government situation, and the prime minister needs to decide with whom she wants to form a minority government - with the "Progressives" or with the "Green Farmers".

The idea is certainly interesting, but apparently, Mr. Šuvajevs, being still young in politics, truly believes that a minority government can function in our country.

In reality, such a government may not last long – either it will "collapse" during the budget approval, or the Saeima majority will simply torpedo all important bills for the government, or the opposition, to end the agony of the government, will raise the issue of no confidence in Siliņa, and the majority of deputies will vote for it. Let us remind you that, according to the law, the government automatically resigns if the Saeima rejects the budget bill in the first or second reading.

In fact, the government hangs by a thread. When this material was being prepared for publication, debates on the bill to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention had already been ongoing in the Saeima for more than four hours. Opponents of the bill debated long and hard from the parliamentary podium on each of their amendments – apparently trying to prolong the session. But let us venture to assume that in the end, the bill will be adopted in the final reading.

Four Options

What will the ardent opponents of this bill – the "Progressives" and especially the "Unity" party – do? The prime minister's party essentially has four options for action.

Option one – do not make any sharp moves undermining the stability of the government until the budget is adopted and simply first appeal to the president with a request not to proclaim the bill, and then, if the president does proclaim it, file a lawsuit in the Constitutional Court.

Option two – try to check if the prime minister still has the trust of the majority of the parliament and put the question of confidence in the prime minister and thus the entire government before the Saeima.

Option three – yield to the "Progressives" and dismiss (by the prime minister's decision) the Minister of Welfare Reinis Uzuliņieks (Union of Greens and Farmers), since this ministry is primarily responsible for the implementation of the Istanbul Convention.

Option four – in the created situation, the prime minister herself resigns, and then it is considered that the entire government has resigned. However, Siliņa and the other ministers will still perform their duties until a new government is approved – this will take at least a month. This, by the way, does not prevent the adoption of the budget for 2026.

There is an option where the "Progressives" set a kind of ultimatum to Siliņa: either she dismisses the head of the Ministry of Welfare and/or all ministers from the Union of Greens and Farmers, or the "Progressives" will leave the government themselves. In any case, this will inevitably lead to a government crisis. One thing is clear: the "Green Farmers" no longer want, and cannot, be in a government ideologically alien to them. After all, this threatens them with complete failure in the upcoming Saeima elections.