Russia Easily Organizes Small Diversions That Are Difficult for the West to Anticipate - Commander of the National Armed Forces 0 4

In early October, Estonia temporarily closed traffic on its eastern border along the so-called Saatse Boot, as border guards noticed an unusually large movement of military personnel on the Russian side. The Saatse Boot is a protrusion of Russian territory that extends into the Võru County of Estonia. It includes a kilometer-long stretch of road that Estonians use to avoid a detour. Estonia published a video showing seven armed individuals standing on the road.

Commenting on the situation, Pundans told the LETA agency that, on one hand, Russia has not violated anything since the armed individuals were on Russian territory. At the same time, the situation can be viewed as a provocation, as it differs from everyday occurrences.

"If this is a deliberate provocation, then they [Russia] have achieved their goal. Seven people on their side of the border are making noise almost to the level of NATO. This is wrong. If we continue to 'burn' our attention like this, we may miss what we really need to notice. What are they trying to achieve? Are we reacting to the slightest such violation of Article 4 of the NATO Treaty? This would undermine the essence of that article, and Russia could very well be satisfied that it is causing a big effect with small actions, while we are going in the wrong direction," said the commander of the National Armed Forces.

At the same time, Pundans emphasized that action plans have been developed in case a group of unidentified individuals appears on the Latvian side of the border. The commander also referred to the provisions of the national security law, according to which a threatening situation to the state caused by military actions includes illegal foreign military actions against Latvia, including illegal entry or presence of military formations or units without identifying insignia on the territory of Latvia.

Pundans also reminded that Latvia has been facing organized pressure from Belarus regarding illegal immigration at the Latvian-Belarusian border for the fourth year and that armed Belarusian soldiers have been spotted on the other side of the border.

"Our plan is to continue monitoring them to understand what goals they are pursuing," added Pundans.

When asked what scenarios Russia might deploy in the foreseeable future, considering the ongoing war in Ukraine and the hybrid threat to the West, Pundans replied that Latvian services regularly analyze situations identified so far both at the Baltic borders and in other countries around the world to anticipate possible scenarios.

At the same time, Pundans did not deny that Russia's advantage as an attacker lies in finding a new way that we have not anticipated, and small diversions are difficult to foresee but easy to organize.

"Drones, cyberspace, information space - these are places where such actions can be easily conducted. This, in turn, creates a significant resonance on our side. Perhaps the goal is not so much to test our response procedures as it is to stir up our public and intimidate it, so that we lose public support, and the population, for example, would not support an increase in the defense budget," said the commander of the National Armed Forces.