Changing tastes and cost-saving measures are reshaping the global beverage market: in the next five years, consumption in traditional countries will decline.
Global alcohol consumption volumes are expected to decline until 2031, as consumers in traditional alcohol markets such as Europe, North America, and China drink less.
From 2024 to 2025, consumption of spirits, beer, and wine decreased by 2%, and according to the global market research company IWSR, it is projected to continue falling in the coming years at least until 2031. These estimates are presented in its first decade-long forecast covering 160 markets.
By 2035, the total volume is expected to remain 1% below the 2025 level, despite a 9% increase in the global population reaching the legal drinking age.
It is forecasted that annual per capita consumption of pure alcohol will decrease by about half a liter over the decade, which is roughly equivalent to two bottles of spirits per year.
The decline will be particularly noticeable in some of the largest alcohol markets in the world.
It is projected that by 2035, consumption volumes in China and the U.S. will decrease by nearly one-fifth. Germany is expected to see a 14% decline, the UK by 13%, and Japan by 15%.
In contrast, several developing markets are expected to see significant growth: India will become one of the largest drivers of alcohol demand after China. From 2025 to 2035, the number of servings consumed annually is expected to increase by 13% in Mexico, 15% in Vietnam, 26% in Colombia, and 38% in India.
"By 2035, the market landscape will be radically different from what we see today," said IWSR President and Managing Director Marten Lodewijks in a press release.
The outlook varies significantly across different categories of alcoholic products. Global wine consumption is expected to decline by 14% from 2025 to 2035, spirits by 2%, and beer by about 1%.
In contrast, the ready-to-drink (RTD) segment, such as pre-mixed cocktails, is expected to grow globally by 17%.
"In 2025, global RTD consumption reached 1 billion cases of 9 liters for the first time, and there are no signs that this trend will decline," said IWSR Consulting Director Luke Tegner.
