The effects of the war in the Middle East will impact supplies and prices in the coming quarters.
Global food prices continued to rise in March, reaching their highest level since September 2025. This was reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The FAO food price index stood at 128.5 points, which is 2.4% higher than the revised February level and 1% higher than a year ago.
As noted by Reuters, the main factor behind the increase was the rising energy costs amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The FAO warns that if the war drags on for more than 40 days, high fuel and fertilizer costs could lead to reduced crop yields, decreased fertilizer usage, and a shift by farmers to less expensive crops, which would impact supplies and prices in the coming quarters.
In March, sugar prices rose the most, by 7.2%, as the market anticipates that Brazil will direct more sugarcane towards ethanol production due to high oil prices. The vegetable oil price index increased by 5.1%, while grain prices rose by 1.5%. In particular, global wheat prices increased by 4.3% amid worsening harvest prospects in the U.S. and expectations of reduced plantings in Australia due to more expensive fertilizers.
Meat prices rose by 1% in March, dairy products by 1.2%, while rice, on the contrary, decreased by 3% due to the seasonal influx of new harvest and weak demand. Meanwhile, the FAO slightly raised its forecast for global grain production in 2025 to a record 3.036 billion tons, which is 5.8% more than the previous year.
The current price increase does not yet indicate a food shortage, but it points to growing inflationary pressure throughout the supply chain – from fuel and fertilizers to bread, vegetable oil, and sugar.
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