The Computer Memory Shortage Will Last at Least Another Two Years 0 14

Manufacturers around the world are increasingly redirecting their capacities to produce more expensive and in-demand HBM chips, necessary for AI training, which reduces the output of regular DRAM.

The shortage of DRAM memory chips worldwide may persist at least until the second half of 2028. This was stated by the Taiwanese manufacturer Nanya, explaining the situation by the sharp increase in demand for memory for artificial intelligence systems.

Today, manufacturers are increasingly redirecting their capacities to produce more expensive and in-demand HBM chips used in AI accelerators, which reduces the output of regular DRAM, writes Taipei Times.

According to the company's president, the peak of the crisis will last until the second or third quarter of 2027. The reason is that new production capacities for DRAM are being introduced very slowly, so global supply cannot keep up with the growing demand from the technology industry.

This indicates that the market has effectively shifted entirely to the sellers' side. Meanwhile, the internal forecasts of the manufacturers themselves suggest that the shortage may last until 2029, and in the longer term – even for an entire decade.

Nanya analysts also expect further price increases for memory over the next few quarters, likely until the end of the year. According to the company's forecasts, due to the AI boom, high-speed HBM memory will account for 10% of the total global DRAM production volume in 2026 – compared to 7% in 2025 and 4% in 2024.

To increase supply, Nanya has already begun construction of a factory that will produce memory standards DDR5, DDR4, and LPDDR4. However, it will not be ready until at least 2027. Moreover, the factory will not be able to immediately start producing memory – it will open at least by the end of next year, when all equipment is installed and permits are obtained.