The strategic ally has reduced purchases of local products.
Belarusian official statistics calculated that the GDP of Belarus grew by 1.3% year-on-year last year, although the authorities had planned for 4.1%. What went wrong?
According to the first estimate, the Belarusian economy grew by 1.3% last year. The main brake was the manufacturing industry, which shrank by 2.5%, although in 2024 it grew by 5.4% year-on-year. Its share in GDP is about 20%, meaning that developments in this sector significantly impact the entire economy. Experts link the current downturn to problems with the main partner – Russia. There, purchases of Belarusian products have decreased.
Additionally, freight transportation fell by 2.6%. Wholesale trade also dragged down the economy, decreasing by 4.9%.
On the other hand, passenger transport increased by 7.1%. The number of passengers rose by 1.5%.
Retail trade also showed good results, growing by 6.6% year-on-year. Daily, Belarusians spent an average of 30.9 rubles in stores (compared to 27.5 rubles the year before). Consumers did not spare the catering sector either, which grew by 5.1%.
Dmitry Kruk, an expert from the BEROC research center, previously stated in a comment to Belsat that last year the Belarusian economy began to return to a stagnant state, where growth exists but is very weak.
The authorities had planned for GDP to increase by 4.1% last year, and they forecast 2.8% for this year. The analyst doubts that this is realistic: "The authorities' plan to stimulate investments again, as in 2025, will face limitations: weak enterprise finances, external deficits, and inflationary pressure." According to Kruk, one should expect growth of around 1.5%.
