Analysts from Western banks expect that the premium for geopolitical risks will not exceed $3–4 per barrel.
The President of the United States is confident that oil prices will decrease in 2026 and is doing everything to prevent them from rising. Venezuela and Iran are raising quotes, but global trading platforms are following Trump. If everything goes as the US leader wants, it will be very painful for Russia!
For two weeks, global oil exchanges ignored events in Iran. The country, which accounts for 3% of global hydrocarbon trade, has been ablaze for the third week, while the exchanges were still "digesting" the arrest by American special forces of former Venezuelan leader Maduro and awaiting the lifting of sanctions and the return of US oil giants to Caracas.
Only after Trump called on the rebels in Iran to continue protests and promised them assistance did oil quotes begin to rise. For the first time since November 2025, Brent gained 3% and is now priced at $65/barrel. In just three sessions, oil has risen by 7%.
Analysts from Western banks expect that the premium for geopolitical risks will not exceed $3–4/barrel. The biggest trouble for global trade would be Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil and significant volumes of LNG pass. However, a complete blockade is unlikely. It could happen if the US decides to intervene militarily in the Islamic state. Then oil prices would rise by 30%, Goldman Sachs warns, and oil would cost $120/barrel.
For the Iranian economy, blocking oil supplies would be suicidal. Oil is the country's main commodity, and China is its largest buyer. Losing this income would make it extremely difficult to cope with popular protests.
At first glance, the American president pursues two opposing goals. On one hand, he supports his oil industry and takes donations from oilmen for his election campaign. For shale oil producers, low prices are akin to death.
— $50 is the saddest and most negative scenario for American oil companies. This is practically the cost of production for shale oil in the US, which approaches $50/barrel, — reminds Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Financial Institute under the Government of the Russian Federation.
On the other hand, if Trump does not lower gasoline prices for the people, he could lose the midterm elections and end up with a Congress where the majority belongs to the Democrats, who will "sink" all initiatives of his administration. Let's remember that this was the case during Trump's first presidential term. Therefore, production in the States will continue to grow despite the risks for oil companies.
However, even now, hydrocarbon exports from Russia are decreasing. If sanctions become even stricter, export volumes will have to be reduced. Only a third of the oil produced is consumed domestically.
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