Chocolate producers have reported a decline in demand for their products despite falling cocoa bean prices and the replacement of raw materials with cheaper plant alternatives, Bloomberg reports.
According to experts, despite the recent halving of cocoa futures from their December peak, producers continue to work with stocks purchased at peak prices. As a result, after cocoa butter prices fell by 75% in 2025, bean processing became unprofitable compared to using other plant alternatives.
According to data from research firm Circana, chocolate candy sales in North America plummeted by 21% year-on-year. As noted by Julia Buech, senior analyst at the Dutch cooperative bank Rabobank, the industry is entering a 'new normal' with high costs, requiring constant adaptation from market participants.
The combination of expensive traditional sweets and cheaper products with cocoa substitutes creates uncertainty for the long-term forecast of cocoa bean demand worldwide, experts believe.
In the spring, the popularity of Dubai chocolate caused a global pistachio shortage and a sharp rise in prices, FT reported. The price of pistachio kernels surged over the year from $7.65 to $10.3 per pound, according to data from nut trader CG Hacking.
The company noted that before the boom of Dubai chocolate, there was no surplus of pistachios in the market, and when the new dessert appeared, producers bought up 'all the kernels they could find,' leaving other buyers short.
According to Behruz Aghakhani, a board member of the Iranian Pistachio Producers Association, the pistachio shortage followed low demand for pistachios in 2023, when the supply of pistachios exceeded buyer interest, leading to a price drop.
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