"Long wars are particularly difficult to end." - historian.
The war in Ukraine has lasted as long as World War I, calculated German historian Jörn Leonhard, who predicted a "bloody end" to it. Leonhard is a professor at the University of Freiburg and a Doctor of Historical Sciences. According to his calculations, World War I lasted 1,568 days: from July 28, 1914, to November 11, 1918. If the Russian Federation invades Ukraine, this milestone will be reached on June 10.
"Long wars are particularly difficult to end. A long war creates its own dynamics - whether it is expansion into other countries or the introduction of new technologies. In World War I, we see this in the example of submarines or poisonous gases, and at the end - bombers and tanks. In Ukraine, this is a war of drones and robots. Such dynamics are not observed in short wars. A long war also entails enormous resource costs and extremely high losses, making it difficult to find concessions," Leonhard told the German television channel ntv.
According to the historian, after the war ends, both Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin may face the "myth of the stab in the back," similar to what the German authorities experienced after World War I. At that time, there was a legend in the country that the German army was supposedly defeated not from the outside, but from within due to the betrayal of politicians, the opposition, and leftist forces. These "internal enemies," according to the legend, broke the Germans' will to victory and forced them to capitulate. Another lesson Leonhard mentioned is that such long wars have an "end that is almost as bloody as the beginning."
"I would not rule out that this will manifest in the Russian-Ukrainian war before the first concessions are reached: a massive escalation of violence to demonstrate to the opponent what we are still capable of," the historian predicted.
