Exports to the US decreased by nearly a third in the first three months of 2026, while the EU prepares to fulfill its part of the trade agreement with Washington.
The impact of Trump's tariffs on the EU market is already becoming noticeable: the negative trade dynamics with the US are only surpassed in scale by the decline in trade with Iran.
In the first three months of 2026, the value of EU trade with the US in monetary terms decreased by 30% compared to the same period last year, according to Eurostat.
In August 2025, the US forced the EU to conclude a trade agreement by imposing 15% tariffs on a number of goods.
The Trump administration explained this move by citing a trade deficit with the EU of more than 300 billion euros.
The US does have a trade deficit in goods with the EU, but it amounts to about 200 billion euros.
However, this is offset by the value of US services exported to the EU, resulting in the overall trade surplus of the EU shrinking to just 21 billion euros.
Who Else Has Experienced a Trade Decline?
The tariffs have hit key European industries such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, semiconductor manufacturing, as well as the wine and cheese industries.
While the EU prepares to fulfill its part of the agreements, the US remains its largest export market: it accounts for about 120 billion euros, or approximately 19% of the total value of the bloc's goods exports.
However, the decline in trade with Washington contributed to a 9% decrease in the overall value of EU exports to other countries around the world compared to the first quarter of 2025.
Exports have also decreased—though not as sharply—in other key markets: to China (by 8%) and Turkey (by 8%). The largest decline was recorded in trade with Iran: down 44%, mainly due to sanctions related to its nuclear program, support for Russia, and human rights violations.
There is some positive news: in the first quarter of 2026, exports to Indonesia increased by 23%.
This was a result of the completion of negotiations on a new trade agreement, CEPA—Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement—which provides for the reduction or elimination of tariffs on most EU export goods, as well as the simplification of customs procedures.
The agreement is expected to come into effect later this year or in 2027.
Exports also grew, albeit less significantly, to India (by 1.8%) and the UK (by 2.3%). After the US, the UK remains the second most important market for the EU (14%), followed by Switzerland (9%), China (7%), and Turkey (4%).
New Tariffs on the Horizon?
However, the trade war between Europe and Washington does not seem to be over yet.
