Trump Goes to Xi: Beijing and Washington Try to Prevent a New Trade War 0 16

The American president is visiting China for the first time in nine years.

Donald Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping is intended to extend the truce between the two main economic and military powers of the planet, established last autumn, but it will not resolve any direct issues in bilateral relations, let alone address indirect problems, including Russia's war against Ukraine, experts believe.

For the first time in history, the head of China will host the president of the United States as equals.

As it became clear after Trump's return to the White House a year ago, China also has trump cards in its confrontation with the U.S. Trump lost the trade war, failed to turn China against Russia and Iran, and his own campaign promises to curb China's technological and military development crumbled against harsh reality.

As a result, neither China nor the U.S. can dictate terms to each other anymore, but no one is ready to issue ultimatums either. Therefore, this visit will, at best, be a prelude to subsequent meetings between Xi and Trump — at least three more are planned in the coming year.

A Lean Peace is Better than a Good Quarrel

"We shouldn't have high hopes for the upcoming summit between Trump and Xi," warns Jonathan Cheng, a former analyst at the CIA's China division and now a researcher at the American Brookings Institution. "After the leaders' meeting last November, relations stabilized, but they are characterized more by the absence of conflicts than by the presence of any constructive agenda." Thus, the main outcome of Trump's visit to Beijing will be the mere fact that the two world leaders met and parted amicably.

"A modest step towards stability and predictability in the relations of the two most important countries in the world," describes the upcoming summit Edgard Kagan, a China expert from the American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Over the last decade, all contacts between China and the U.S. — political, diplomatic, military — have gradually dwindled. Therefore, the mere fact that the two leading nuclear powers have resumed direct dialogue makes the world safer, says Michael Froman, a former senior White House official responsible for international trade and relations with the G7 and APEC, the association of Asian and American countries.

"It seems that the new U.S. administration's China policy is to avoid conflict. No one is trying to resolve the main issues in bilateral relations anymore: China's economic expansion, plans for Taiwan's unification, and support for U.S. adversaries — Iran and Russia," notes Froman.

"Therefore, it is unlikely that the Trump-Xi summit will change the nature and course of U.S.-China relations in the long term. It is about guarantees of stability, not about solving pressing problems."

"China is Stronger"

"China's position and Xi Jinping's ahead of this meeting are much stronger," asserts CSIS expert Scott Kennedy, who recently returned from China, where he discussed the upcoming summit with officials and businesspeople. "But even if they do not achieve significant success, if the summit goes without scandals and Trump does not slam the door, China will come out as the overall winner."

As noted by the BBC, a year ago everything was different. Trump returned to power under the banner of defeating China and imposed draconian tariffs on Chinese goods. It was the same during his first term, but this time China responded firmly — and Trump retreated.

"China now confidently stands up to Trump on many key issues, including sanctions, the war in Iran, technology control, and rare earth metals," experts from CSIS note.

The Shadow of Putin

Due to the war in Iran, Trump's visit to China was not only delayed but also complicated. Even before the war, there were enough problems in bilateral relations, and now they will also have to discuss the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused global oil prices to soar, and China has lost a significant share of oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf, reports the BBC.

But no matter how much China wants to unblock its main route for energy imports, geopolitical considerations will play a primary role at the summit, believes CSIS China expert Edgard Kagan.

"China will try to avoid the impression that it is pressuring Iran on behalf of the U.S.," he said.

A similar situation exists with Russia and Ukraine.

"The negotiations may raise the question of China's role in a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, but China, for its part, will almost certainly continue to support the Russian military machine," believes Edgard Kagan.

Trump will undoubtedly try to persuade China to buy more oil and gas from the U.S. — the world's largest energy producer — at the expense of current purchases from Iran and Russia.

If China does not take on strict commitments to purchase American liquefied gas but instead signs a gas contract with Putin, Trump may become upset, and everything will go awry again in U.S.-China relations.

The Beginning of a Beautiful Friendship. For How Long?

"This summit is very important for the Chinese," notes Edgard Kagan from CSIS.

Personal contact with Trump will help Xi Jinping extend the tariff truce, ease trade restrictions, and convince Trump not to strengthen, or even to weaken, support for Taiwan, he says: "The Chinese want to maintain good relations with the U.S., and therefore value the personal relationship between Trump and Xi. It is clear that the U.S. wants the same."

However, no breakthroughs should be expected — distrust is too high, the problems in the world have not diminished, and China's confidence that America will uphold Trump's promises leaves much to be desired. Firstly, because Trump is not eternal, and secondly, the congressional elections in November could change the balance of power in America.

Analysts are confident that the upcoming summit is unlikely to bring loud breakthroughs or resolve key contradictions between Washington and Beijing, writes bb.lv. However, the mere fact of direct dialogue between the U.S. and China is already seen as an attempt to reduce tension and avoid a new round of global confrontation.