According to Lithuanian intelligence, published in the annual report, Russia is expanding military units on the NATO border and utilizing combat experience gained during the war in Ukraine.
These units could be used as bases in the event of a conflict with the alliance after the military actions in Ukraine conclude. This was reported by Reuters, citing data from Lithuanian military intelligence.
The intelligence notes that if international sanctions are lifted, Russia could prepare for a "large-scale military conflict" with NATO within six years. At the same time, the Russian army could increase by 30–50% and become relatively modern, while strategic reserves of weapons and ammunition would be fully restored.
Moscow's main goals remain to change the balance of power in Europe in its favor and to subjugate Ukraine. The restructuring of the Russian military industry, with support from China, has reduced Moscow's dependence on Western technologies. Lithuanian intelligence warns that after the war, the surplus of weapons in Russia could have "consequences for global security."
The Baltic states are on heightened alert due to a series of underwater sabotage incidents that began after Russia's invasion in 2022. NATO is strengthening its presence in the region. The report mentions incidents involving damage to gas pipelines, power cables, and fiber-optic communication lines in the Baltic Sea, although investigations have not yet confirmed their intentional nature.
The head of Lithuanian military intelligence, Mindaugas Mazonas, emphasized that some of these incidents have been deemed unintentional, but the situation remains tense.
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