As noted in his article by The Telegraph columnist Liam Holligan, the focus has now returned to Ukraine and negotiations for a peace agreement. He pointed out that American envoy Steve Whitcoff indicated 'significant progress.'
"Many will be vehemently opposed to any peace agreement between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Many Western leaders and military analysts argue that Ukraine should not give up its territory and continue the fight, otherwise Putin will be 'rewarded' for his illegal invasion," writes the columnist, adding that despite this, the war may soon come to an end, as a durable peace agreement between the Russian Federation and Ukraine should bring significant economic benefits.
What Benefits a Peace Agreement Will Bring
He pointed out that the cessation of war could lead to a drop in gas prices in Europe below €25/MWh, while oil prices could fall by about $5-10 per barrel, from the current approximately $65.
"Although the energy relationship between Western Europe and Moscow will remain tense for many years, regular gas supplies through pipelines from Russia will stabilize global supplies and reduce still high energy prices," believes Holligan.
Additionally, Ukraine's return to the status of 'breadbasket of the world' will also contribute to lowering inflation globally.
"Although it will take several years, the restoration of Ukraine as a major agricultural exporter should alleviate global concerns about food security and stabilize world grain prices," the columnist explained.
He added that besides Russian energy and Ukrainian agricultural products, a peace agreement will bring other benefits to global trade. For example, the opening of the Black Sea for unhindered trade and the potential opening of Russian airspace will significantly reduce shipping and air transport costs.
"The end of the war will certainly mark the beginning of one of the largest infrastructure projects in modern history. More than $1 trillion of private and public funds will be spent on the reconstruction of Ukraine over the next 10 years – a trend that will benefit many Western companies," the journalist stated.
Thus, as Holligan noted, a peace agreement between the Russian Federation and Ukraine could provide not only humanitarian aid but also clear economic benefits.
The Agreement Between Ukraine and the Russian Federation Will Forever Change the World
However, the reality is that this war, even when it ends and the current geopolitical tensions ease, will forever change the global economy. The world will move along a different, more aggressive geopolitical trajectory for many years.
"This is because Moscow's invasion of Ukraine marked the beginning of a clearer fragmentation of the world into two geopolitical blocs, sometimes referred to as 'the West and the rest.' Several major powers have supported Putin – primarily China and India," the columnist explained.
Thus, Holligan concluded, the war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine may soon end. But even if a peace agreement is reached, its divisive impact will be felt for decades to come.
Negotiations in the UAE
Today, Axios reported, citing its own sources, that negotiations between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi were 'productive' and took place in a 'friendly' atmosphere.
It is noted that the negotiations included both joint meetings of American mediators with Russian and Ukrainian negotiators, as well as a direct meeting between the Russians and Ukrainians without Americans.
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