The State Border Guard Service of Lithuania (SBGS) states that there are pauses in the movement of illegal migrants from Belarus to the European Union (EU) every winter for various reasons; however, it is currently possible to suspect changes in the behavior of the Minsk regime.
Lithuania has not recorded a single migrant from Belarus attempting to illegally enter the country in the last ten days.
"At the moment, we can suspect that the activities related to organizing these migrants, directing them, assisting them, and so on — are currently somewhat suspended," said Gedrius Mishutis, spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service of Lithuania (SBGS), to the BNS agency.
Migrants were last recorded at the Latvia-Belarus border on December 30, and at the Poland-Belarus border on January 9.
According to Mishutis, this in itself is not a new trend.
"Throughout January 2024, there were 15 days when all three countries also recorded zeros. And one period lasted for eight consecutive days with zeros in all three countries (...), even three days with zeros spilled into February," Mishutis said.
"In January 2025, there were five days when all three countries also recorded zeros. This is a shorter period, but still, it is not new," he added.
According to the border guard representative, clearer trends in illegal migration from Belarus will become apparent with the warming weather.
Some political analysts suggest that illegal migration from Belarus to the EU may have been discussed during a meeting in December between U.S. President Donald Trump's envoy John Cole in Minsk and authoritarian Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
After that meeting, the American official reported that Lukashenko promised to stop launching smuggler balloons into Lithuania, but illegal migration was not mentioned.
