After the interception of an Iranian missile heading towards Turkey, there is no reason for panic over a possible broad escalation of the conflict, said Tom Ratfelder, an employee of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, to the LETA agency.
According to Ratfelder, the likelihood that the missile was intended for Turkey is low. He suggested that the target was more likely Cyprus, which would make more sense from Iran's perspective. He stated that it is possible the missile deviated from its trajectory on the way to its original target, which is why it ended up near Turkey's southern border.
Ratfelder believes that there is currently no reason for panic regarding a broader escalation of the conflict, as Turkey has not invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which provides for consultations among allies in the event of a security threat. He also does not forecast that this article will be activated.
Furthermore, he noted that involving Turkey in the conflict would be strategically disadvantageous for Iran, as Turkey is a strong military power in the region and has so far tried to stay out of the conflict.
He pointed out that this would be unnecessary pressure for Iran, which can be avoided. Therefore, it is more likely that this incident was a mistake rather than a deliberate act, the researcher suggested.
As reported by bb.lv, on Wednesday Turkey stated that NATO systems intercepted an Iranian missile before it could enter Turkish airspace.
NATO condemned Iran's actions towards Turkey.
The Latvian Ministry of Defense stated that the incident highlights the growing risk that the conflict could extend beyond the current participants and also involve NATO member states.
