The most likely scenario following the peace negotiations between the USA, Ukraine, and Russia in Abu Dhabi is a gradual freezing of the conflict, rather than its resolution. There is also a high probability that hostilities will continue for a long time.
This opinion was expressed to the LETA agency by the director of the Center for Eastern European Policy Studies, Maris Cepuritis.
Commenting on the upcoming trilateral negotiations between the USA, Ukraine, and Russia in Abu Dhabi, Cepuritis noted that the most likely scenario remains a gradual freezing of the conflict, but not its final resolution.
"A whole range of contentious issues remains between Russia and Ukraine, primarily concerning Donbas, where Russia insists on establishing full control, including territories that it does not actually control," the researcher stated, emphasizing that such a scenario is unacceptable for Ukraine.
In this regard, he said, a gradual freezing of the conflict is possible. He added that there is also a high probability that negotiations and hostilities will continue for a long time.
Considering the situation from Latvia's perspective, Cepuritis noted that the country's security and defense policy in recent years has been shaped by the risks that Russia may potentially pose, and significant changes in Latvia's security strategy should not be expected in the near future.
"Of course, theoretically, the freezing of the conflict increases the likelihood that the Russian army's 'hands are freed,' and Russia may be more ready to deploy them elsewhere; however, immediate actions are unlikely to be expected," Cepuritis said, adding that in the near future, threats in the Baltic Sea region will predominantly remain in the hybrid domain.
It was previously reported that trilateral negotiations between the USA, Ukraine, and Russia will take place in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday and Thursday.
