Currently, Russia does not exert direct influence on the internal politics of Alexander Lukashenko's regime; however, both sides are unwilling to allow a repeat of the internal political instability similar to the protests of 2020, which Russia perceives as a threat to its interests. This is stated in the report published on Monday by the Bureau for the Protection of Satversme (BZС) for the year 2025, writes LETA.
At the same time, the BZС considers it quite likely that Russia will restrain attempts by the Lukashenko regime to restore relations with European countries if this proves disadvantageous for Moscow.
According to BZС data, Russia reacts sharply even to minimal attempts by the Belarusian regime to pursue a more independent policy, despite the growing Russian influence in Belarus and its clearly pro-Russian course. In Moscow's opinion, Belarus's return to economic cooperation with European states would contribute to the multi-vector foreign policy of the Lukashenko regime and would automatically lead to a decrease in Russia's influence in the country.
Moreover, a possible change of the Lukashenko regime, if not directly agreed upon with the Kremlin, would be perceived by Russia as a threat to its interests in Belarus, emphasizes BZС.
According to the Bureau's assessment, it is quite likely that Belarus will play an increasingly important role not only in achieving Russia's military goals but also in meeting its military-industrial needs — in case Russia continues its aggressive foreign policy towards Western countries.
The war in Ukraine confirms that in the context of military conflict, the civilian economy of Belarus is completely subordinated to Russia's military interests. From the perspective of the Lukashenko regime, providing military-industrial support is almost certainly the best way to assist Russia in its war against Ukraine, as Belarus is not directly involved in combat operations, yet the regime receives economic and financial benefits, notes BZС.
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