Russia is capable of forcing the Baltic states to capitulate in 90 days without deploying troops, writes Defense News, citing new research prepared by the Baltic Defense Initiative.
The aim of the study was to identify vulnerabilities in Lithuania's defense system and to eliminate them.
The following events were modeled in the scenario: in December 2027, Marine Le Pen becomes the President of France, who withdraws the country from the "nuclear umbrella" mechanism for NATO allies. The United States is exhausted from the war with Iran and has depleted its stockpiles of weapons.
Russia launches a massive strike on Lithuania: missiles targeting government authorities, then uses over 170,000 Shahed-type kamikaze drones over 60 days. In Vilnius, there is widespread destruction — bridges, power plants, hospitals, and water supply facilities are destroyed. On the 90th day, Moscow issues an ultimatum: the Baltic states must agree to occupation, or the next targets will be Riga and Tallinn.
Latvia has not yet commented on the experts' conclusions. However, recently Prime Minister Evika Silina, Commander of the National Armed Forces of Latvia Kaspars Pudans, and President of Latvia Edgars Rinkēvičs stated that Russia does not intend to attack Latvia.
Baltic Defense Initiative is a Lithuanian analytical center (think tank) specializing in security and defense issues of the Baltic states.
