Latvians Crowd Around Riga: Latgale and Vidzeme Will Lose a Quarter of Their Population 0 7

Scenario: "Do Nothing"

From a demographic perspective, Latvia is effectively making a passive choice and moving towards stagnation, the report notes. Low birth rates, negative migration balance, and slow economic growth mean that the "do nothing" scenario leads to depopulation and an increasing fiscal burden, researchers emphasize.

The report states that the demographic decline in Latvia has been ongoing for several decades — both the total population and the proportion of working-age residents are decreasing. It is expected that in the coming years, demographic changes will further exacerbate regional disparities, as demographic dynamics across Latvia are uneven.

According to the latest available regional forecasts, from 2025 to 2040, the so-called "two-speed" demographics will persist: Riga and especially the Riga region will continue to become population magnets, while other regions will face more rapid depopulation, the report states.

We Are Losing Them

Internal migration to the central part of the country, emigration abroad, and low birth rates will lead to a significant population decline in Latgale and Vidzeme — by 25.6% and 21.6% respectively, which is twice as fast as the national average, researchers believe. In Riga, the population will decrease by 16.6%, while in the outskirts of Riga, it is projected to increase by 9.5%, according to the report.

The differences will be even more pronounced when analyzing the age structure. In Latgale, the working-age population may decrease by 35% by 2040, while in other regions (excluding the Riga region) it will decline by 17–28%. At the same time, in the outskirts of Riga, the number of working-age residents will increase by 8.4%.

As the number of potential parents decreases most rapidly in Latgale and Vidzeme, these regions are expected to see the most noticeable reduction in the number of children, while in the outskirts of the capital, the number of children will be growing, the study notes.

A Country of Pensioners

At the same time, the number of residents of retirement age will increase in all regions, especially in the Riga district, where an increase of 18.5% is projected. By 2040, the population aged 80+ will increase by 17%, and those aged 90+ will rise by 41%.

In 1990, there were more than five working-age residents for every pensioner, but by 2025, this will drop to only 2.9, and by 2040, it is projected to be 2.2 working-age individuals per pensioner, which is a quarter fewer workers per pensioner. "This is a significant decrease, indicating increasing demographic pressure on the social security system," the report states.

Since regaining independence, the median age in Latvia has increased by about ten years and currently stands at 44.2 years. Projections show that over the next 15 years, the median age will reach 49.6 years, and in Latgale, it will even be 54.3 years.

On one hand, it is good — people are living longer. On the other hand, the average age is increasing due to the decreasing number of young people.

For Oneself and for That Guy

Analyzing the state of healthcare, the authors concluded that the number of years of healthy life in Latvia remains below the EU average, which limits the potential for extending working life. At the same time, in the area of skills and education, despite some improvements, Latvia is unable to sufficiently quickly increase the share of highly skilled labor.

The growth of innovation and productivity is also currently insufficient to compensate for the decline in the workforce, researchers note. Labor productivity in Latvia lags behind that of the most developed European countries, and the structure of the economy still largely relies on sectors with relatively low added value, the report states.

It is emphasized that even significant improvements in qualitative indicators cannot fully replace the population decline, as a sufficiently large domestic market and scale are necessary for economic development.