Former Saeima deputy, lawyer Yuri Sokolovsky, in a series of posts, clearly shows that Latvia is facing a financial catastrophe. An important source of the budget is eurofunds, but in the coming years, it will run dry.
Once, Latvia was a self-sufficient country with a developed industry and a well-established agricultural sector. But today, our state critically depends on external revenues: it is firmly sitting on the neck of the EU, paying five times less than it receives from there.
Here’s how it looks in specific figures provided by Sokolovsky. Latvia is required to contribute 443 million euros to the EU budget for 2026. And this year, it will receive 2.2 billion euros from the EU budget in the form of eurofunds.
Interestingly, our regional neighbors are much smaller freeloaders in relation to the European Union than we are. For instance, Estonia pays the same amount as Latvia, despite having half a million fewer residents than Latvia. Meanwhile, Lithuania pays twice as much as Latvia, although its population is not twice as large, but only one and a half times larger.
Overall, for the European Union, we are like impoverished individuals who need to be given a discount for the inability to live independently and constantly receive assistance. But how long will this indulgence last?
According to Sokolovsky, not long: this year is the last. Because the leading countries of the European Union are also not doing brilliantly. Moreover, a new priority has emerged - pan-European defense, which will require huge expenditures. This means that assistance to EU members will be significantly reduced.
To prove this, Sokolovsky provides the following data.
What does Latvia's budget consist of in the current 2026 year? 8.7 billion euros - own revenues, 2.2 billion euros - "Foreign State Assistance" (eurofunds), 2.4 billion - borrowed. In total: main budget expenditures - 13.3 billion euros.
From these figures, it is clear that EU funds and loans make up more than half of our own revenues in the state budget. And that would be fine, but the already announced plans of the European Commission aim to radically change this dynamic.
In the next year - 2027 - we will not see any 2.2 billion from the EU; they will be reduced to 1.48 billion euros. The decline is colossal. And in 2028, we will receive only 1 billion euros from the EU. However, in return, they will demand more contributions to the EU budget from us. Thus, in 2028, we will have to pay Europe 496 million euros.
That is, in just two years, EU assistance for Latvia will effectively amount to "1 billion minus 496 million euros": half a billion euros. But we are used to a completely different ratio! Today, we receive net euro funds according to the formula "2.2 billion minus 443 million", which is three and a half times more.
And our government relies on this ratio. It has long been unable to manage differently, without relying on European money.
Secondly, Latvian authorities rely on loans. As Sokolovsky reminds, every year from 2026 to 2028, the government plans to borrow: 2.43 billion → 2.34 billion → 2.2 billion euros. Accordingly, the expenses for paying interest on the debt will also grow: from 593 million euros in 2026 to 652 million euros in 2027, 732 million euros in 2028, and 861 million euros in 2029.
But if anyone thinks that these loans and EU funds will go to medicine, education, social assistance, and other areas crucial for the population, they are sorely mistaken.
Firstly, they will go to servicing our monstrously bloated bureaucratic apparatus, which, despite the difficult times, has no intention of curbing its appetites, lowering salaries, or refusing bonuses. On the contrary, state sector expenditures are growing not by the day, but by the hour, and its salaries have long surpassed those of the private sector.
Secondly, Latvia has declared the priorities of increasing defense capability and supporting Ukraine. Significant funds from the budget will go precisely there.
Sokolovsky provides such data. This year, defense expenditures amount to 2.15 billion euros. Next year, they will allocate 2.3 billion euros. In 2028, this will be 2.35 billion euros.
Let’s return to the beginning of the text: 2028 is the year when we will effectively receive a measly (compared to the current figures) half a million euros from the EU (after deducting our euro tax from the euro funds).
How will we live in such a drastically changed reality? According to an old joke that Sokolovsky mentioned in one of his posts. Prices for alcohol have risen, and the son asks his alcoholic father: "Daddy, does this mean you will drink less?" "No, son, it means you will eat less."
