Electricity in Latvia Increased by Almost 46% Over the Summer: What Will Happen in the Fall 0 1011

This summer, the Baltic countries produced a record amount of electricity from solar and wind — over 3.6 terawatt-hours. This is 43% more than in the summer of 2025.

However, the abundance of "green" energy was not enough to reduce prices. The average electricity price in the Baltics rose by 34% compared to last year.

In Latvia, the increase was even more noticeable: the average price reached €0.082 per kilowatt-hour — 45.8% higher than last summer.

There Is Much More Sun, Yet Electricity Prices Still Rose

About three-quarters of the increase in renewable energy production was provided by solar power plants.

A particularly noticeable jump occurred in Latvia: solar electricity production here more than doubled compared to last summer. In Lithuania, it increased by 56.4%, and in Estonia — by 3.4%.

Lithuania led in wind energy production — it accounted for 82.6% of the total increase in the Baltic countries.

So why did prices rise despite these records?

One of the main reasons, according to Enefit, is the limited capacity of the connection between Estonia and Latvia. As a result, Latvia could receive less cheaper electricity from Finland.

In August, the average electricity price in Estonia was €0.059 per kWh, while in Latvia and Lithuania it was around €0.08.

At the same time, electricity prices also rose in Finland: from €0.015 per kWh in July to €0.041 in August. Consequently, imports to the Baltic countries became more expensive.

Hydropower Let Us Down

Another factor was the decrease in electricity production at hydropower plants.

Last summer, the volume of hydropower generation in the region was about 86% higher. This helped keep prices in check, especially in the evening when solar power plants could no longer provide the same amount of energy.

Roman Tyurin, head of portfolio management and market research at Enefit, points out that it is important not only to consider the amount of renewable energy produced but also when it is produced and whether it can be transmitted to where it is needed.

Solar power plants help reduce prices during the day. In the evening, the role of wind and hydropower, as well as import capabilities, increases.

It was precisely the combination of weak hydropower generation and limitations on the Estonia-Latvia connection that prevented our country from fully benefiting from cheaper electricity from the Nordic countries.

Wind and Rain Will Decide Everything in the Fall

The prospects for the coming months are also quite uncertain.

According to Enefit, prices will largely depend on wind strength, precipitation levels, and air temperature. The situation on the global energy resource market will also be significant.

Additional pressure is created by the rising cost of natural gas due to supply disruptions related to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the increase in emission quotas in Europe.

The situation in the Nordic countries is particularly concerning. The water level in Norway's reservoirs before the high consumption season is currently the lowest in the last 30 years.

If the fall turns out to be dry, electricity prices in the Nordic countries may rise, and the Baltics will feel the increase as well.

A Rainy Fall May Save the Situation

Enefit emphasizes that the risk of price increases is currently higher than it was a year ago.

If hydropower production in the Nordic countries remains low and there is also little wind, consumers in Latvia will feel the impact of more expensive electricity.

However, much can still change with the weather. A windy and rainy fall will increase renewable energy production and may significantly improve the situation.