Russian grain exporters have begun to redirect supplies from the Black and Azov Seas to the Baltic amid Ukrainian attacks on vessels and port infrastructure. According to Reuters, increasing attention is being paid to the ports of the Baltic countries, primarily Latvia, and by September, the volume of such shipments may sharply increase.
In the last export season — from July 2025 to June 2026 — Russia exported 46.3 million tons of grain through the ports of the Black and Azov Seas, or about 90% of the total export volume. Only about 1 million tons were shipped through Russian ports on the Baltic Sea.
However, the situation has begun to change. According to sources from Reuters, from the beginning of the new season until mid-August 2026, the volume of applications for grain transportation to Russian ports on the Baltic Sea has already reached 5 million tons. For comparison, the corresponding figure for Novorossiysk and Tuapse is about 6 million tons.
Focus on Latvia's Ports
Russian exporters are increasingly considering the possibility of using the ports of the Baltic countries — primarily Latvia. It is expected that by September, the volume of such shipments may significantly increase.
Despite the strained relations between Russia and the Baltic countries, the transit of Russian grain through the region has not completely ceased. Analysts estimate that in the last season, its volume was about 1 million tons compared to 2.5 million tons two years earlier.
"The Baltic region, the northwest is now the main resource. I think in September we will see a sharp increase in cargo volumes through the Baltic countries and Russian ports on the Baltic Sea," said Andrey Sizov, head of the consulting company SovEcon.
Arkady Zlochevsky, head of the Russian Grain Union, suggests that in the current season, the export of Russian grain through the Baltic countries could reach 5–6 million tons, and with the availability of Estonian ports, it could even reach 10 million tons.
According to Sizov's estimates, the potential export volume through the ports of the Baltic countries could range from 200,000 to 400,000 tons per month — about twice his estimate of the capabilities of Russian Baltic terminals.
The total capacity for grain transshipment in all three Baltic countries exceeds 18 million tons per year. These terminals also handle grain cargoes from other European countries.
Baltic Ports Cannot Fully Replace the Black Sea
Having become one of the largest participants in global agricultural trade and a leading exporter of wheat, Russia has built grain terminals in Vysotsk and Ust-Luga. Grain can also be transported through St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad.
The combined capacity of Russian ports on the Baltic Sea is estimated at a maximum of 7 million tons of grain per year.
However, even with the expansion of these capacities, they will not be able to fully replace the ports of the Black and Azov Seas. According to Zlochevsky's estimates, at best, all other Russian ports together with ground transport will be able to handle only about half of the cargoes that usually passed through the Black and Azov routes.
According to data provided in a Reuters report, as a result of attacks by Ukrainian armed forces, more than 80% of Russian grain export capacities have been rendered inoperable. Experts estimate that in August, Russian wheat exports amounted to only 1.9 million tons — the lowest figure in the last 16 years.
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