Russia's budget deficit in 2026 will be half that of Latvia's as a percentage of GDP

Business
BB.LV
Publiation data: 02.12.2025 13:21
Кремль опасается, как бы рубль опять не стал "деревянным".

The largest item of expenditure remains social.

Next year, the government plans to collect 40.27 trillion rubles in taxes and spend 44.06 trillion rubles. Thus, the treasury will incur a deficit of 3.78 trillion rubles, or 1.6% of GDP (in Latvia - 3.3% of GDP).

Almost 30% of the budget, a record share since the Soviet era, is intended for the army and arms purchases — 12.93 trillion rubles. Another 3.91 trillion rubles is allocated for the "national security" item, which includes the budgets of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the National Guard, intelligence agencies, and the Federal Penitentiary Service. In total, security forces will receive 16.84 trillion rubles, or 38% of the budget. Compared to the pre-war 2021 (24%), the share of security expenditures will increase by 1.6 times.

The share of social expenditures in the treasury will decrease to 25.1% (before the war — 38.1%), and the share of spending to support the national economy will drop to 10.9% (before the war 17.6%). Both indicators will be the lowest in 20 years of available statistics from the Ministry of Finance.

Oil and gas revenues, which fell by 20% this year, will not significantly increase next year, according to the law: 8.9 trillion rubles compared to 8.6 trillion. The government intends to "squeeze" 2.9 trillion rubles in new taxes from the non-resource sector of the economy.

Starting in 2026, the VAT rate in Russia will be raised for the second time in 7 years (to 22%), and a radical tax reform for small businesses will begin, resulting in hundreds of thousands of entrepreneurs losing the ability to work under the simplified taxation system (STS). From September 2026, a "technological fee" will be introduced — a de facto tax on equipment and electronics sold in Russian stores. The increase in VAT will bring 1.2 trillion rubles to the budget, and overall tax innovations will yield 2.6 trillion, as previously stated by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

To balance the budget, the authorities will cut several key social programs. Thus, funding for the national project "Sustained and Active Life" (formerly the national project "Healthcare") will be reduced by 26%, to 274.2 billion rubles. Expenditures on the primary healthcare modernization program will be cut by 2.3 times, the federal project for the development of emergency medical services will lose 28% of its funding, and programs to combat diabetes, cancer, and cardiovascular diseases will be reduced by 13%, 3.1%, and 2.5%, respectively.

"The government, the Ministry of Finance, in a difficult, complex, and challenging task, has made the budget balanced, clear, and guaranteeing the fulfillment of our obligations," said Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko after the law was passed.

The budget is aimed at addressing the "tasks facing the country" and protecting the "interests of citizens," stated State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin after the vote on the law. He added that the budget was adopted "under difficult conditions of challenges," as more than 30,000 sanctions have been imposed against Russia.

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